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Miscellaneous

The Fourth Turning

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According to a historian theory, world events unfold in predictable cycles of roughly 80 years, that you can devide into 4 chapters (or turnings), (1) Spring (Growth), (2) Summer (Maturation), (3) Automn (early old age and reconstruction), and (4) Winter (late old age and destruction). There are strong parallels with the 1930s today.

The Fed's Plan was always pushing Stocks higher

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You bring long-term rates down, and the price to earnings ratios in the equity markets go up, which is exactly what they planned to do and it has happened that way.

Crude Oil will probably retest the Lows

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The way most markets work when you have a big collapse, there is a bounce, often also called a dead cat bounce, and then after a while you have a retest of the lows.

Technical Analysis doesn't make much sense in rigged Markets

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Technical analysis is widely used by traders and financial professionals but basically doesn't make much sense in todays rigged markets. Inputs are distorted and thus the results misleading (garbage in, garbage out).

The Purchasing Power of Gold

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An ounce of gold today buys the same amount of crude oil it did 60 years ago, that’s one of the keys to having a successful sound money.

Are we addicted to Failure?

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Like all addicts, Central Planners are confident they can manage the monkey on their back, but this is a self-serving illusion, it's the monkey who controls the addict.

How much more Upside is there?

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For 5 years the correlation between the expansion of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and the growth of the S&P 500 has risen dramatically.

The Keys to successful Investing

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First, you have found something that is cheap, second, a dynamic change in its favor is about to occur.

S&P 500 and Margin Debt Level

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Although everybody tells us that there is still a lot of money on the sidelines and retail investors seek for a dip to get on board, the highly leveraged market is sending quite a different message.

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